A Closer look at Mediocrity

Matt Herges mas 16 saves, the third most in the National League. Unfortunately, that doesn't make him the third best closer. Saves indicate only the ballgames that have been relatively close. At the same time, some saves are clearly tougher than others: Finishing a 3-2 game with runners on the corners and no outs is worth no more than a 3-0 game with no men on and two outs. In short, saves are not a good yardstick for performance.

And just in case you would be led to believe that, overall, the total number of saves can provide a guide to who's hot and who's not, take a quick glimpse at the leaderboard. Danny Graves leads the majors with 21. Eric Gagne, on the other hand, has only 13. Keith Foulke has pitched scoreless ball on 21 out of 23 appearances for the Red Sox, but has only 10 saves.

The numbers however, as they often do, present something of a double-edged sword. For Herges has done a lot more than blow four saves in seventeen chances this season. When the rejoicing over his worlds' strongest man celebration has abated, take a closer look at the Giant's closer. I've thrown in two other soft-tossing closers for contrast: Jose Mesa, the pundits' perennial whipping boy; and Tim Worrell, another player whom the Giant's couldn't afford to keep, and couldn't afford to lose.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Matt Herges . . . Jose Mesa . . . Tim Worrell . . .
Opp. On Base Ave: . . . . . .370 . . . . . . . . . . 274 . . . . . . . . . 289 . . . . . . .
Hits per 9 Innings: . . . . . . 14.2 . . . . . . . . . 8.14 . . . . . . . . . 7.65 . . . . . .
Strikeouts per 9: . . . . . . . 4.94 . . . . . . . . . . 5.70 . . . . . . . . . 6.21 . . . . .
Strikeout/BB Ratio: . . . . . 1.50 . . . . . . . . . . 3.15 . . . . . . . . . 1.92 . . . . .
Pitches per Inning: . . . . . .17.3 . . . . . . . . . . 14.6 . . . . . . . . . 14.8 . . . . .
E.R.A: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.93 . . . . . . . . . . 1.30 . . . . . . . . . 3.04 . . . . .

It is imperative that borderline contenders like the Giants capitalize on their opportunities. For them, because of the lack of depth in the rotation, opportunities to win games will be fewer and further between. With Herges on the mound in 2004, there is a 38% chance that any hitter will reach base. That's beyond precarious. It's suicidal.